Falcons vs. Bears, Week 6: Penix gets the green light, and the NFL's two best ground games share a field

The scare turns out to be a footnote. Kevin Stefanski told reporters Wednesday that Michael Penix Jr. should start Sunday against the Bears, with the rib injury that knocked him out of the Ravens loss looking like the minor version of those things — he practiced limited and is expected to be under center in the Benz. What's waiting is a Sunday that actually fits this team: the NFL's top two ground games in the same building, Bijan Robinson's league-leading 580 rushing yards against a Chicago defense that has made third down its whole personality.

The NFL's two best running games, one field

This is the matchup that defines the afternoon. Chicago has run for 866 yards this season, the most in football. The Falcons are right behind at 834 behind Bijan's 580 — no one in the league is close to the 1st and 2nd rushing attacks sharing a stadium. The Falcons have no real answer through the air (a passer rating south of 75 that's the third-lowest in the NFL), so the identity is the run game, and the run game is Bijan. Chicago does it by committee — D'Andre Swift with 354, Kyle Monangai with 324 — while Atlanta leans on one star. Whichever defense slows the other's ground game is winning this game.

The third-down number that actually matters

The Bears concede 26% on third down, second-best in the league behind Minnesota. That single number is the difference between these two offenses having the same plan and only one of them executing it. Atlanta's passer rating is the third-lowest in football, so the Falcons aren't going to beat Chicago by getting into shootouts on obvious passing downs. They need to stay ahead of the chains and let Bijan grind, because against a defense this good at getting off the field, every third-and-long is potentially the drive ending.

Two quarterbacks with something to prove

Penix practiced limited Wednesday and is expected to go — the Falcons dodged the worst case after the rib scare in overtime against Baltimore. On the other side it's a mess in Chicago's favor: Caleb Williams (hamstring) practiced in full and the Bears' QB situation stays "fluid," with Case Keenum coming off a 24-of-34, two-touchdown night against the 49ers anyway. The Falcons, after the encouraging stretch from Penix, get the softer landing at home — but a healthy Williams changes the ceiling here.

Bijan's the headline, Drake London's the real chess piece

Bijan is the obvious story: 580 yards and counting, more than anyone in the league by a clear margin. But the matchup-winning piece might be Drake London, who's got 488 receiving yards (fourth in the NFL) and is the one guy who can punish a Bears defense selling out to stop the run. When Penix does put it up, London is the target that keeps Chicago honest. If the Falcons want a shot at a second straight win at home, Bijan breaks it on the ground and London makes the passes that do count hurt.

Bird Gang bottom line

This is the most beatable spot left on the schedule, and the Falcons know it. Two run-first offenses, a home crowd, a healthy-enough Penix and the league's best running back against a defense that's great on third down but not scary on the ground — it's a coin-flip by the standings and a bit better than that by the matchup. A win here puts Atlanta back at .500 and right in the NFC South's throat. When the Week 6 board opens on pickembaby.com, this is the exact kind of home spot to build your whole leaderboard around — private leagues, free, no reason not to have a voice in it.

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